If April showers bring May flowers, what’s April’s employment figures bring for markets?

May 24th, 2017 Research Watch

This week, analysts look at the April employment figures and economic growth on a state-by-state level. Also, private health insurers Nib and Medibank don’t look so healthy to some, and another research house returns to covering Boral.

RBA May Meeting, and will winter 2017 bring the peak in gas and electricity prices?

May 17th, 2017 Research Watch

Digesting the RBA May meeting minutes means making a meal of the RBA’s evolving view of part-time employment by choice versus underemployment. Meanwhile, to quote Game of Thrones, winter is coming, and Credit Suisse downgrades both AGL and Origin on analysis that the peak in gas and electricity prices is also coming this winter. Also, the news is good for Newcrest’s Cadia mine, with earthquake damage not as severe as it could have been.

SPECIAL: Budget 2017

May 12th, 2017 Research Watch

Rachel Alembakis reviews broker analysts reports in the days following Budget 2017-18.

In this analysis of Treasurer Scott Morrison’s Budget 2017-18, we examine first the macro-economic forecasts and assumptions to the proposals, then look in turn to the biggest announced pieces to the puzzle and possible equity impacts – the banks levy, the lifting of the Medicare cap, housing affordability measures (or lack thereof), infrastructure, insurance and superannuation, and retail.

Budget 2017, National Australia Bank, and global housing regulations

May 10th, 2017 Research Watch

Budget 2017 is here, and initial conclusions from the analysts is that it didn’t hold too many surprises. The big change will be the 0.6% levy on banks with more than $100 billion in deposits, while analysts flagged the new spending on infrastructure as well. We will bring you more coverage of brokers’ Budget conclusions in Alan’s Overview this Saturday.

Budget 2017, banking sector half-yearly reports, & Amazon’s impact on advertising

May 3rd, 2017 Research Watch

This week, policy wonks, political geeks and financial number-crunchers turn their attention to Canberra in the lead up to Budget Night 2017, and analysts have already begun to look at potential impacts on various sectors. Meanwhile, the banks are releasing their half yearly figures, and some are questioning how long the good times (or earnings) are going to roll, if mortgage repricing begins to slacken. Plus, if you think Amazon is only going to impact on the retail sector, Morgan Stanley urges you to think again.

AGL Energy outperforms ASX200, but can it continue to rise?

April 26th, 2017 Research Watch

This week, the markets prepare for the release of the first quarter inflation figures (hint: it’s not going to be huge number), Ord Minnett downgrades AGL Energy on assessment that the company has reached the top and has to stop, analysis of how China’s move to crack down on pollution from aluminium production may be a boon for Australian producers, and brokers prepare to bid farewell to DUET Group, after Treasury and the FIRB approve the CKI-led takeover.

TPG’s mobile play prompts estimates change, but no substantial moves on Telstra

April 19th, 2017 Research Watch

With Easter behind us, leaving empty baskets and colourful foil bits like so much festive flotsam and jetsam in our wake, the reports from brokers this week are as precious as golden eggs. They have plenty to say about Telstra and TPG, but most analysis has not resulted in drastic reratings of either stock. Meanwhile, if you’re looking for cheerful news about the state of the Australian economy, don’t look under the RBA’s bushel.

Elliott’s proposal to demerger BHP Billiton roundly rejected by brokers

April 12th, 2017 Research Watch

Time marches on and the issues that loomed large last week give way for new considerations. This week, the consensus seems to be that Cyclone Debbie has been less severe than Cyclone Yasi, but a letter to BHP Billiton by investor Elliott Management has set a new cat amongst the pigeons, with a proposal of demerger, collapsing of dual listing. Meanwhile, reratings of Asaleo and The Reject Shop concern analysts.

Cyclone Debbie devastated local communities, but won’t have major effect on the broader economy

April 5th, 2017 Research Watch

As the effects of Cyclone Debbie continue to devastate families and communities, it appears the damage bill is not likely to impact the broader economy. Also this week, there is some activity on the company analysis side, with an upgrade to Bank of Queensland, and a downgrade to Dulux among others. But brokers also spent time with an eye on the big picture, such as APRA’s decision to limit new lending for interest-only and high LVR loans, and the RBA’s announcement that they’re leaving the cash rate on hold at 1.5%.

Analysts reiterate satisfaction with Evolution Mining after trip to Ernest Henry mine

March 29th, 2017 Research Watch

This week, analysts visit Evolution Mining’s Ernest Henry mining operation in Far North Queensland and report on their satisfactory findings, while other reports examine the positive impact of increased corporate debt issuance on ASX’s Austraclear business. Meanwhile, Cyclone Debbie is still tearing through Queensland, and while thoughts are with the safety of residents, brokers’ eyes are turning to financial and economic impacts, beginning with warning bells on coking coal production in the Bowen Basin.

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