Talking Finance 30 July 2016

July 30th, 2016 PodcastsTalking Finance

This week’s Talking Finance podcast features interviews with: Origin Energy Managing Director Grant King Centuria Executive Director Jason Huljich HSBC Chief Economist Paul Bloxham Independent Journalist Giles Parkinson Full Interviews and Transcripts Grant King Jason Huljich Paul Bloxham Giles Parkinson Become a TCI Community Member Now Stay up to date and make better informed decisions.Get … Continue reading “Talking Finance 30 July 2016”

Inflation, the threat of Trump, the Fed and China

July 30th, 2016 Weekly Overview

In this week’s overview we look at the shockingly low US GDP that came out on Saturday morning.

Plus a look at:
– Woolworths, the CPI and the dead parrot of inflation
– The growing threat of President Trump
– The risk of Fed hikes and a Chinese bust
– What to do about all these risks
– Plus lots of R&D (Research and Diversions) and some fine weekend music.

Enough Debt Already

July 29th, 2016 Charts

Source: RBA, ANZ Research Private credit posted the weakest monthly result in nearly four years in June, with growth of just 0.2%. The main driver of the weakness was business credit, which shed 0.2% in a disappointing result. Housing credit was again largely stable, although at the margin provides further evidence that the sector continues … Continue reading “Enough Debt Already”

Go To London, Not Tokyo

July 29th, 2016 Charts

Aust dollar versus the UK pound and Japanese yen In a way it shows the modern power of politics: Britain’s politics have been a mess – before and after Brexit – and as a result the pound has been tumbling the Australian dollar has appreciated 22% against in the past 12 months. Japanese, on the … Continue reading “Go To London, Not Tokyo”

Why Woolies Got Into Strife

July 28th, 2016 Charts

Profit margins (%) This graph clearly explains why Woolworths got into trouble, apart from its misadventure into competing with Bunnings. It’s margins were too high. It was luxuriating in a warm bath of 6%+ margins while Coles was at 4% and Tesco’s in the UK were collapsing from 6% to below 2%. It couldn’t last, … Continue reading “Why Woolies Got Into Strife”

LIKE! Facebook’s Share Price Since Listing

July 28th, 2016 Charts

Facebook listed at US$38 in 2012, or a market cap of $104 billion – then the highest value for a new IPO. It then fell to $20, at which point you’d have to say it was a bit of a buy. After reporting a $2 billion quarterly profit this week, the share price popped to … Continue reading “LIKE! Facebook’s Share Price Since Listing”

Small Business: Going Fine, Not Hiring

July 28th, 2016 Charts

Source: NAB NAB put out its quarterly survey of SMEs today and it showed that small to medium businesses are going great – the indexes for conditions and confidence both kicked up by 2 points to +6 and +5 respectively, the highest levels since about 2010. But this graph shows the problem: sales are back … Continue reading “Small Business: Going Fine, Not Hiring”

Inflation

July 27th, 2016 Charts

Source: ABS, AMP Capital At 1%, headline inflation is the lowest it’s been since June 1999; core inflation is 1.5%, which is the lowest in two decades. Does that mean the RBA will cut rates next week? Maybe, but it’s line ball.

Why No. 1 – Wages

July 27th, 2016 Charts

Source: HSBC Why is inflation so low? The first reason is that wages growth is the lowest on record. Not only is the unemployment rate still relatively high, underemployment is much higher, so there is plenty of slack in the labour market…

Why No.2 – Commodities

July 27th, 2016 Charts

Source: HSBC … and part of the reasons for low wages growth is the collapse in commodity prices, which has cut the Terms of Trade by 30% and lowered national income.




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